Empty cities of China

Edwina Lee · Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2011 1:57 pm Post subject: Empty cities of China

There are now more & more empty new cities in China.

I like to know what is the situation, and what is happening in China to get these cities maintained, and populated with people & businesses.

Clearly, this situation pose enormous opportunities and threats in China as well as across the world.

chunxueping · Joined: 24 Jun 2007 Posts: 763 Location: Beijing, PRC

Wow, it still works after all these months...

Problem is that they are not maintained. They are the consequence of cheap loans and lack of planning.

They will simply become derelict. Probably within ten years. Why worry about it? You don't live there.

Edwina Lee · Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:22 pm Post subject:

Yeap, Dimsum is still here! Very Happy

Worry is not the word, concern is my name.

Wherever there is a problem, my mind wanders there, for neccessity is the mother of all inventions.

China should patent its many problems!

As there are so many people in big cities without a proper home, and the Haku system discourage the settlement of migrants, I just can't get my head round that they are still not filling those empty cities with businesses and people.

I have rudimentary ideas of how they can do it.

chunxueping · Joined: 24 Jun 2007 Posts: 763 Location: Beijing, PRC

More amazed that my password still worked...

It is Hukou 户口 system.

Well apart from marching people out at the point of a gun no. The cities were usually stuck up in the middle of nowhere without central permission and no proper transport and little industry. So little point in putting people there as will cause distress and disent. They still need to be fed and looked after.

Surprising though it is for westerners to believe the aim in China is to try and govern by consent and popular mandate. This is not always possible but we do try.

Edwina Lee · Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 11:48 pm Post subject:

Here is my rudimentary plan in sequential order as the numbers:-
[1] Fill up the universities at an empty city which include courses in business, transport, retail, services in health & beauty, custom manufacturing, property management, leisure industry, . . .
[2] Attract small businesses to service students & staff;
[3] Set up small businesses to train & employ local graduates;
[4] Let State Owned Enterprises compete with their business plans to receive help to set up their businesses there which would support non-SOEs;
[5] Invite non-SOEs to set up businesses there, bringing new residents there for affordable housing in the city;

It does not look too difficult;

chunxueping · Joined: 24 Jun 2007 Posts: 763 Location: Beijing, PRC

[1] Need lecturers and students but nobody wants to go to an empty university with no name in a place nobody has heard of. Everyone really wants to go to BeiDa or Tsinghua not Ordos and Zhengzhou. Chinese students are no different to western students. They want to go to prestigious universities.
[2] Nobody wants to go there to service anything or anybody, no money in it for them.
[3] Businesses don’t want to go there and new Graduates don’t want to stay there no money in it for them. Are you some sort of Communist?
[4] SoEs don’t want to go there and certainly not to help non-SoEs.
[5] This is the big flaw, someone usually already owns the apartments and cannot afford to sell them. It is the result of property speculation. China is in the middle of a property bubble which in some areas is starting to burst.

Edwina Lee · Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 12:24 am Post subject:

It is definitely an interesting problem for economists & business people to solve.

Property owners will need to rent out if they can't afford the interest. They also need property managers & skilled workers to prevent their property from becoming ruins.

This would provide the new university practical training for property maintainance. A unique opportunity for sandwich degree courses.

A new university can also be subsidised to enable students to get a better deal, & its staff better pay.

I don't see this as an insoluble problem at all.

It is a problem that needs a solution, and the numbers look favourable for a solution.

chunxueping · Joined: 24 Jun 2007 Posts: 763 Location: Beijing, PRC

They dont want to rent them out and nobody wants to live there. Also you havent got any numbers.

So go there and fix it then. Let me know how you get on.

Edwina Lee · Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:34 am Post subject:

What do you think of this Wiki article?

Urbanisation in China
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_the_People%27s_Republic_o f_China

Quote:
"From 2010 to 2025, it is estimated by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that 300 million Chinese now living in rural areas will move into cities. The fast pace of urbanization will create at least 1 trillion yuan in annual investment opportunities in building water supply, waste treatment, heating and other public utilities in the cities"

The point is that they can't all move to Beijing, Shanghai & Guandong. These mega cities are already overpopulated, so people can only move to new cities.

chunxueping · Joined: 24 Jun 2007 Posts: 763 Location: Beijing, PRC

No they wont. They will continue to try to move to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. These big cities will spread out and get larger but there is no particular reason why people should want to go to Ordos and the like.

It is like saying London is full so people will move to Dundee. It doesnt work like that unless you are a police state and China isnt.

Why worry about it? If there is no need for a city it falls down like a house or a farm or anything else. It is not important. The people are important not empty buildings.

Edwina Lee · Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 11:24 pm Post subject:

These cities are already over populated. 300 million extra chinese is like the whole of Europe moving into 4 cities. It's madness!

Those 300 million will eventually spread out over much wider area soon or later. Good sanitation & waste processing facilities will make new cities far more pleasing to live in than those 4 eventually.

Meanwhile, those empty cities can employ house sitters to ensure the properties do not crumble. If the house crumble, they lose their value, and the investors who borrowed to buy the houses will go bankrupt, and so will the banks.

chunxueping · Joined: 24 Jun 2007 Posts: 763 Location: Beijing, PRC

Well four cities are example, they are most popular, there be others, maybe 50 or 100 cities, and it probably wont be 300 Million people and not all at once. Also big cities are not necessarily over-populated, they just big that is all.

However, simple truth is places like Ordos will probably remain empty for the forseeable future as are not attractive for people to live there, no shops or work and little transport.

People cannot "house sit" because in general Chinese houses and apartments are not sold "fitted-out" so no kitchen or sanitary-wear in place. A lot of the properties not be habitable even new. Also who wants "house-sitters" who will become squatters and spoil your investment?

They be built largely for investment purpose and yes, maybe people will lose money. There are many people express concern about property prices in China but this is often put down as "westerner's indulge in "China-bashing" but what has happened in China is no worse than what happen in Ireland for example. Just on a bit bigger scale but then China is lot bigger than Ireland.

Edwina Lee · Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2011 12:54 pm Post subject:

Pollution will ultimately limit the size of these mega-cities. The current level of pollution is already intolerable.

Furnishing and maintaining empty houses are in themselves a big industry which demands designers, craftsmen, & furniture factories.

This would give new cities viable businesses to start from.

A modern city with viable growing businesses is an attractive city to live in.

chunxueping · Joined: 24 Jun 2007 Posts: 763 Location: Beijing, PRC

Have you ever been to any of these places?

Have you ever been to China?

Edwina Lee · Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2011 1:27 pm Post subject:

Surely, you do not deny the serious pollution levels of these cities? Sewage & water treatment, chemical pollution in rivers, air pollution from burning coal, vehicles & by products of chemical processes.

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