A Look At The New China

elle · Joined: 27 Feb 2003 Posts: 334 Location: Nottingham, UK

Your views of this article are solicited! It is modern and to date!

The Rise of China and the New Balance of Power in East Asia
Robert Ross

Professor, Department of Political Science, Boston College
Research Associate, John King Fairbank Center for East Asian Research
Harvard University

Over the years, I've looked at China's rising power and I believe that I've discounted its importance. This is largely because I've considered China's force-on-force balance with the US, and it appears to be falling behind. There are other force-on-force balances of power which are more relevant, namely the China's balance with its neighbors. In 2001 I believe we reached a tipping point in East Asia. We are seeing a clearer division in the balance of power in East Asia, and it will probably make it more difficult in the future for the US to exert its power in the region.

Regarding the nuclear standoff with North Korea, South Korea has actively turned toward China, away from the US as a partner. Cracks have opened up in the US - South Korean alliance. For instance, in spite of US pressure in 2001, South Korea refused to give up its sunshine policy. There is recognition in South Korea that North Korea will eventually fall. This probably won't be tomorrow, but South Korea knows it must think about how it will respond to the loss of a buffer with China. It will face greater Chinese relative power. China has a capable land force, and irrespective of any weakness relative to US, it will remain a formidable military threat to South Korea. South Korea leans toward China today with full knowledge of this.

China's power also manifests itself on the economic front. Seoul is no longer dependent on the US for economic prosperity. China and Hong Kong are now South Korea's largest trading partners, giving China a power over South Korea which it wielded effectively in the recent trade war over garlic. The result was that South Korea caved, increasing its domestic market share of Chinese garlic. Beyond trade, South Koreans are studying in China in large numbers, have residencies in China, and are learning Chinese in schools. Soft power is following hard power.

Now America is seeking a diplomatic solution to the North Korean standoff, which I read to mean that we're giving up. We have conceded that South Korea has turned to China as a partner in dealing with North Korea. On the other hand China has imposed major sanctions on North Korea, cutting fuel and grain shipments. China leans closer to the South Korean position than the North Korean position on the peninsula. This reflects a realization that China has an alternative to North Korea in North East Asia. A hegemonic peace on the peninsula is emerging. South Korea is working through Beijing to deal with North Korea, and this manifests itself in reduced American presence on the ground. The shift is gradual but noticeable.

We also see China's power emerging toward Taiwan. In 2001 Bush opened the door to Taiwan to bring forward its long weaponry wish list. Yet Taiwan suddenly backed off, saying that it was not sure it was still interested in buying these advanced weapons. China today relies on missiles and fighter aircraft to threaten Taiwan. These weapons don't provide China a capability to bring Taiwan to its knees, but they will impose a significant cost on Taiwan if Taiwan declares independence. No matter what Taiwan buys from the US, the threat will exist, and Chinese influence over Taiwan will remain.

At the same time Taiwan has become more economically dependent on the mainland. Today much of its investments are tied up on the mainland, and over a million Taiwanese have residences on the mainland. Taiwanese businesses have been vocal in opposing political resistance. Taken together, this means that Mainland China has the ability to impose a large economic blockade on Taiwan. Today less than 10% of the people in Taiwan support a declaration of independence. Less than 20% support even changing the name of the government from the Republic of China to the Republic of Taiwan. The mainland has observed these popular trends, and it knows that there will not be an explosion any time soon.

No defense doctrine will be effective in dealing with China. Taiwan realizes that if it does not accommodate China, it will become the "Cuba of the East." In the midst of a crisis, other countries will likely suspend trade with both sides. It will become a pariah. I believe the Taiwan independence is doomed.

Maritime East Asia, on the other hand, remains an American lake because China does not possess a maritime power projection capability. But economically, China's power is growing rapidly. We saw for a long time a very strong anti-Japanese nationalist force in China. Polemics against Japan were common. They have all but ceased. Commentators routinely debate how China can expand cooperation with Japan. Chinese elites are hard-core realists, and I believe China's anti-Japanese nationalism was part of its security policy. Japan appeared 10 feet tall to China. It took a long time for China to realize that Japan's relative power toward China was sinking, but by 2000 this view had taken hold. China is much more confident today in its economic strength toward Japan.

China's exports to Japan have increased by 50% in recent years. Meanwhile Japan's exports to Hong Kong and China today are 75% of its exports to the US, and this number is growing. Soon Japan will trade more with China than it does the US. Whatever economic leverage the US once had with Japan will have disappeared. In a recent trade war, China exerted its power by responding to Japanese tariffs on mushrooms, leeks, and reeds with a 100% increase in duties on Japanese cars, cell phones and air conditioners. Truly this was massive retaliation.

The same trends are visible among the ASEAN countries and their balances with respect to China, although the trends are slower in developing. At the end of WWII the US realized it could do two things at once - achieve a global free trade order to boost economic growth everywhere, and create dependency on the US, whose economy was incredibly strong relative to the rest of the world. Today China has realized it can do the exact same thing, and I believe it is pursuing this strategy via ASEAN. They are offering non-reciprocal trade relations with ASEAN countries, just as America did decades ago.

Chinese leaders once denied that China was a powerful country, much less on the rise. "China is too poor, too weak." Not today. Chinese leaders actively debate how to use their power. So how does this impact America? First, we should remember how we got involved in these countries. We were opposing communism anywhere and everywhere -- the Munich syndrome. It was about credibility. Today communist influence of the Korean peninsula no longer threatens US national security. Moreover, I believe that China is reaching the extent of its expansion for geographic reasons. The seeds of China's political relations with the rest of East Asia, and therefore its growth in relative power, were laid in 1950, long before its economic takeoff. Those seeds do not extend beyond East Asia.

Rapporteur: David Blum

elle · Joined: 27 Feb 2003 Posts: 334 Location: Nottingham, UK

This is a very interesting assessment of the spiritual needs of the new generation of the Chinese population. It will be interesting to see how things develop over the future years.

"The Sleeping Giant awakes

China reconsiders the need for spirituality to balance scientific development and consumerism

By Thomas Jay Oord
(June 14, 2006)

ENLIGHTENED: Renewed interest in religion is moving Chinese society beyond dialectical materialism and toward a society more focused on faith.
(Source: NASA)
The world has its eyes on China. This most populated country exerts powerful economic, political, cultural and ideological influence today. But not many know that at the same time China’s interest in science-and-religion scholarship is also on the rise.

Zhihe Wang is a leader in China’s exploration of science-and-religion. Wang is the executive director of the China Project and the Institute for Postmodern Development of China. The aim of these groups is to create and promote new modes of development in China and the West, which includes academic research in science-and-religion.

Wang, who is a member of the prestigious Chinese Academy of Social Studies, has a background in philosophy and interdisciplinary studies. The author of numerous books and journals, Wang has established more than 10 research institutes in China, including the Beijing Center for Science and Faith.

Because of his intimate knowledge of the Chinese Academy, Wang is able to draw together scholars of various backgrounds for a well-informed perspective on science-and-religion in China, where Marxist philosophy is now being reconsidered. Science & Theology News spoke with Wang about China’s newfound interest in science-and-religion and its future direction as the "Sleeping Giant" awakes.

Q: What impact has spirituality had on the Chinese today?

A: Right now, Chinese youth have a strong feeling that there is a loss of faith in the country. Some people are calling for a renewed look at spirituality. They are looking for something beyond the material, beyond money. Even the government is now calling for spirituality.

It is focusing on issues of morality — the ultimate concern that goes beyond materialism.

Of course, Karl Marx argued that religion is the opiate of the people. And this view is still held by some. But Marx’s view is now undergoing reconsideration. A recent article written by a high official suggested that Marx’s view of religion is now out of date.

Today more people focus on the positive side of religion. People can openly talk about their religion in China. It’s an indication that China has become more open to spirituality.\

Q: Where are the Chinese looking for spirituality?

A: Some people are looking to Christianity, but some people are attracted to Buddhism. Others look elsewhere.

The government does not endorse any particular religion. It encourages moral consideration, and it sometimes calls this a move toward a “spiritual civilization.” The government says that not only do we need to build a physical civilization, but we also need to build a spiritual one

Q: What roles do you think science and spirituality might play in building the harmonious society that China wants?

A: The previous administration [in China] was concerned primarily about improving the economy. But the new administration is interested in sustainable development. They use the words “scientific development” to describe this.

Encouraging sustainable development requires long-term vision. The government believes that this vision includes a spiritual dimension. That’s why it promotes the idea of a harmonious society that maintains a balance among the material, physical and spiritual.

Q: Many Chinese scholars are talking about the increasing gap between the rich and the poor in China. Do you think that science and spirituality have anything to contribute to narrowing that gap?

A: I think science-and-religion play a big role. Right now, consumerism is dominant in China. People want to catch up with their neighbors. They want to keep up with the Wangs, if you will. If I have a car, my neighbor wants a car. My neighbor may have no real need of a car, but he wants one because I have one.

But spirituality says that we must find other values. Spirituality calls us to reach inside and not to worry so much about the outside. Spirituality becomes the antidote to consumerism.

Q: Are the Chinese interested in studies of love and well-being?

A: Love has been important in the past, and it continues to be important. We were told to love our brothers and sisters. In the past, a divide existed between the bourgeoisie and proletariat. Right now, people are realizing this was a very narrow understanding of Marxism. People were suspicious of each other when these divisions existed. But now people focus on what is deeper — that we are all human beings.

Many published articles and novels in recent days have focused on humanism. Once in a while the government tries to suppress this movement. They call it a liberal movement, but the idea already is rooted in people’s hearts. So the new administration has put forth a slogan that says, “Put the people first.” The government organizes elementary children to visit the aged community and disabled people. They call this movement “Expressing your heart in love.”

In my own religious tradition, we are taught always to leave something extra. Why? To feed the ants. Traditionally we didn’t light a fire in a lamp so that moths would not be drawn to it and die. This demonstrates love for all creatures. It is compassion and mercy.

Q: Science is highly regarded in China. What do you think of this high regard?

A: Last April, I had an article published in a very famous Chinese newspaper paired with an article written by someone who embraced scientism. I noted that China has never had a Nobel Prize winner. I argued that it will not have a Nobel Prize winner until the Chinese begin to think of science more broadly.

Chinese scientists focus only on their own fields. But I wrote that they must consider questions that transcend their particular disciplines. I never criticize science itself. We are all beneficiaries of science. But we should criticize scientism.

I think we should remove science from the position of queen. A queen just sits around, and there is not much for her to do. Science can be like the queen in the Forbidden City. She can be cut off from engaging with the outside world with its big ideas. But I want the queen to walk out of the Forbidden City. She needs to see that there is a bigger, richer and more colorful world. When encountering this world, science can enrich itself. Science requires creativity, and it should always be facing challenges — never stopping, always wanting to move on. "

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