Despite the shaky economy, American couples are increasingly choosing to have bigger families.  Not so in many countries of the European Union (EU) and in East Asia with falling birth rates and an aging population.

I currently live in Albany in Upstate New York, a medium-sized city three hours north of Manhattan and the state capital.  Coming here several years ago, I knew nobody - no contacts, no friends, no family.  The girlfriends I've made over the years have become like my family.  I write about them in "Coffee Mates", my blog on Spotlightnews.com, one of the local newspapers.

We became friends before we had children and one by one we had our first child and soon enough our second and then we said we were done.  To my surprise, two announced their third pregnancy this year.

Baby "Boomlet"

How appropriate then in light of the current U.S. baby boom; well technically a "boomlet " meaning a small and brief baby boom.  Demographers say it's too soon to tell whether it's a trend.

According to the National Center for Health Statistics in its initial analysis of 2006 birth data, the United States has experienced a milestone, its highest number of births in 35 years.  Not since 1971 has the total fertility rate - the total number of live births per 1,000 women in the age group of 15 to 44 - surpassed 2.1. 

This is the "magic" number called the replacement rate for a developed country to maintain current population levels without putting a strain on national resources.

Some experts think it's more a case of many women in the U.S. having two children each, rather than a smaller number having several children.  I'm aware I've contributed to the statistics by having 2 children in my mid- to late-30s in the last 5-years.

Current birth rates are up for nearly every age group, from women in their teens to early-40s and in most racial or ethnic groups, making the U.S. stand out among industrialized nations. 

The total fertility rates in many of the most developed countries are some of the lowest in the world - in Italy and Spain it's at 1.29; Japan at 1.23 and Singapore at 1.07 (2006 figures). 

The "Magic" 2.1

Without the 2.1 replacement rate in developed countries, there may come a time when there aren't enough people to fill jobs and pay into the system to support the elderly.  

By 2050, demographers project there'll be one person of working age for every two people aged 65 or over in the EU .  By 2105, Japan is projected to lose half its population .

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/2005/RAND_RB9126.pdf

Reasons for U.S. Baby Boom

Experts can't pinpoint the exact reason for the higher birth rates in the United States, but suggest a mix of reasons.  Some of the increase is due to rising immigration - Hispanics have the highest fertility levels, about 2.9.  But this isn't the determining factor, as there are increases in other racial or ethnic groups.  And the fertility rate of non-Hispanic whites at 1.9 is still higher than that of other industrialized countries.

Perhaps, it's due to the 24/7 economy with relatively large numbers of part-time jobs and shift work and a culture that ensures women can have children and work outside the home without any stigma attached, along with American men sharing in the raising of children. 

Or maybe, in certain parts of the country, it's the emphasis on religion and the importance of family that contributes to higher fertility rates coupled with limited access to abortions in some states and recent declines in contraceptive use.

We Can't Afford Children, Can We?

Wouldn't the present doom and gloom - U.S. dollar plunge, severe slump in the housing market, subprime mortgage crisis, higher costs of living - deter Americans from having children?  You'd think they would reconsider having a larger family when in 2004 the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated it would cost $184,320 to raise a child from birth through to age 17 for a family making $41,700 to $70,200.

Right from the start, parents realize the cost of buying and caring for a child.  Witness the strong growth in premium baby gear from pushchairs to cots that are works of art.  I asked my cousin's wife, a pushchair designer for a leading British baby goods retailer what the high-end "must-haves" are for the new mother.  As parents, would you pay the going rate in the U.S. of $900 for the Bugaboo "Cameleon" pushchair or the Stokke cot - the choices of celebrity mums?

It Doesn't Matter about the Money

Faced with the economic reality of having children, I was surprised by the U.S. birth rate statistics.  I asked my two friends who are expecting their third child and other women I know in Albany who have three or more children why they decided to have more than two and whether economic factors affected their decision. 

I spoke to six women in total, and most of them said they didn't feel their family was complete with two children.  Two had twins the first time around and wanted to enjoy a second pregnancy.  Most were in agreement with their partners about having three or more children.

One couple did have concerns about the environmental implications of having a larger family, given that the U.S. is the major consumer of scarce resources.  They had many discussions before they could agree on having another child. 

Friends and family were generally supportive of the women having another child.  Reactions ranged from surprise because of their age at their third or fourth pregnancy (late-30s) to concern about how they would cope with several children close in age. 

The women felt public perception of larger families is mostly positive.  Now three children are seen as standard with four being considered large. 

There were a few negatives: It's easier to accommodate two children - the family-of-four holidays is the "special" - and families with four or more children are often not invited to functions because they bring too many children.

Yes, they were most concerned about paying for university, but the economy didn't deter them from having more children.  And they absolutely were not influenced to buy luxury brands.  All bought within their means with safety being the main issue and the purchase of new clothes, if they were having a child of the opposite sex.  Friends and family gave gifts and they used hand-me-downs.

What's the Story Elsewhere?

I was interested in comparing the fertility rates in the UK and Hong Kong since I have a special affinity to both places.  My parents emigrated from Hong Kong to the UK in the early 1960s.  I was born, raised and educated in England, and worked in different parts of the UK for 12 years. 

The UK Story

The UK is experiencing its own small baby boom.  The Office of National Statistics reported a 26-year high in the UK's fertility rate based on its 2006 figures .  On average, women are having 1.87 children compared to the all-time low of 1.63 in 2001.  This is still below the replacement rate of 2.1, but it does show the population is currently still growing.

Factors that may explain the increased fertility rate, particularly in the 25- to 29-year-old age group, include changes in maternity leave; tax and benefits for parents and the impact of recent immigration to the UK. 

More interesting to me was the rise in older women having children.  The highest percentage increase of birth rates was that of the 35- to 39-year-old age group - 7 percent in one year.  And, in the last 20 years, the fertility rate has doubled for women aged 40 and over.

Some experts suggest that changes in university admissions in the 1980s meant more women went to university and they delayed having children, unlike earlier generations.  That argument makes sense to me, as I was university educated in the1980s, focused on my career, delayed marriage and, if I were still living in the UK, I would have been one of those women who delayed having children until their mid- to late-30s.

And in Hong Kong

I was really surprised with the total fertility rate of 0.98 in Hong Kong - the bottom of the world's fertility league.  Surprised because I was brought up with an assumption about the importance of family and, therefore, having children in the Chinese culture. 

But thinking about it, I'm not too surprised, as many of my female relatives and British-born Chinese and Chinese women friends in Hong Kong are financially independent, career-focused and dating. 

Even with low-paid domestic help, Hong Kong's highly educated women have a preference for few if any children.  Physical factors such as high property prices may be a constraint in having a larger family, but there's also another material factor - women outnumber men in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong's 2006 census shows 912 men for every 1,000 women.   By 2036, the gap will widen to a ratio of 763:1,000.  Given this statistic, you'd think that Hong Kong men have a large pool of women to choose from in their marriage partners, but since 2001, there's been an 80 percent increase in Hong Kong men choosing to marry mainland Chinese women.

In 2006, 28,000 Hong Kong men married mainland women as opposed to 6,500 Hong Kong women choosing a mainland partner.  This dispels the assumption that Hong Kong women would look to find partners in mainland China with the ratio of men to women there of 119:100. 

Many Hong Kong women, being financially independent, well educated and assertive, do not consider marriage as economic security and may hold negative stereotypes about mainland men being patriarchal and traditional.

Long-term, the fertility rate in Hong Kong is expected to drop to 0.9 over the next 30 years.  By 2036, half the population will be above 46 years of age.

Trends

The U.S. and UK's rising fertility rates - a trend, a boomlet or a singular blip?  It's a case of watch and see.

Hong Kong's Chief Executive Donald Tsang has a goal of encouraging couples to have 3 children in order for the city to grow to 10 million people to become a financial hub to rival New York and London.  Critics think this goal is absurd giving the shortage of space to sustain its population.  Others think there's room for development in the New Territories and outlying islands. 

In 2006, 46 percent of babies born in Hong Kong had mainland mothers.  To achieve Tsang's vision, some experts say more mainland people, pregnant or not, should be welcomed in Hong Kong instead of being turned away at the border.

Stability versus Overpopulation

Sociologists, demographers and economists argue that developed countries need to reach the replacement rate of 2.1 in order to achieve population stability; increased productivity and economic growth, and maintain the solvency of pensions and social insurance systems. 

Other experts make the case for overpopulation controls, not only in developing nations, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa, which has some of the highest total fertility rates in the world, but also in the industrialized nations.  Overpopulation is generally defined as the number of people in a region relative to its resources and the capability of the region's environment to sustain human activities.

Sustainability is a crucial factor in the issue of population growth in the face of current food shortages in many countries; world-wide increases in food prices and a lack of cheap food.   Since 2005, the cost of staples has risen 80 percent.  My staple is definitely rice and it concerns me the price of rice is the highest it's been for 19-years. 

Your Thoughts Please

To have, or not to have children: that is the question.  2.1 or none - What do you think? 

Please share your views below or e-mail Susan directly here This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it .

Susan S. Cheung

 

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Lili - Baby boom Posted 13:35 on 30 April 2008 Hi Susan, Thanks for an interesting article. Personally, being a city-dwelling, early 30s professional, the thought of giving up 'the good life' to raise babies is not particularly appealing. Although I love children, the thought of all the things I would have to give up - frequent holidays abroad, quality time with my boyfriend, lie-ins, disposable income - make me feel I'm not ready to start a family until at least 35. I still have so much more to achieve career wise and personally and there never seems to be enough time as it is. I think being male must be so much easier than being female - fewer constraints! Reply | Quote

Susan S. Cheung - Baby boom Posted 18:10 on 30 April 2008 Hi Lili, Thanks, I'm glad you found my article of interest. Thanks for your comments. I had exactly your sentiments when I was in my early 30s. I didn't get married until my early 30s and it took several years (mid-30s) before I felt ready to have children (definitely, my biological clock kicked in eventually!) I sure miss those lie-ins! Enjoy your time now! Life does change when you have children; it's just different, but you get other rewards from watching your family grow. I am writing a new piece on being a single British-born or raised Chinese woman. If you fit the description, I would love to get your input. Please e-mail me at susan@dimsum.co.uk Best wishes, Susan S. Cheung Reply | Quote

Alice Chun - Baby Boom Posted 19:40 on 30 April 2008 Hi Susan, Nice interesting article. From my experience of living in HK financially independent women tend to look for men of similar means but as you article and data confirms this is rarely a mainland man. Most women I knew in HK married late and choose HK or Singapore partners and often Caucasians. Men certainly tended to marry mainland girls of their parents choosing or at least with their guidance. I have never agreed with the idea of having large children at the behest of the state to provide "workers for the future." Is the wrong reason for children. People should have as many as they need and can afford. Mainlanders do not have this luxury but things are relaxing in some areas now. Zhu Hao, Alice Reply | Quote

Alice Chun Posted 19:43 on 30 April 2008 Hee hee, for "large children" read "large families". It is too late, I should get some sleep. Reply | Quote

Susan S. Cheung - Baby Boom Posted 21:14 on 30 April 2008 Thanks Alice, Thanks for sharing your experiences. Hope you get some sleep! From what I've read about the situation in Hong Kong, the general thinking is that many of the men are marrying mainland women because they're perceived as more likely to follow the role of the traditional wife. Hong Kong women may feel, with all their advantages, they don't want to be submissive to someone and don't want to take on family pressures in marrying someone from a more traditonal and, perhaps, less sophisticated background. Regards, Susan Reply | Quote

BBC - Curious question Posted 20:15 on 30 April 2008 Just to throw a different perspective what do people think of China's one child policy? Reply | Quote

Susan S. Cheung - Curious question Posted 20:56 on 30 April 2008 Hi BBC, Interesting question. China's total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.75 (2006 figures) inspite of its one child policy. http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?c=sn&v=31 Reply | Quote

Susan S. Cheung - Curious question Posted 21:23 on 30 April 2008 Hi BBC, A further point - the ratio of men to women in China is 119:100. The one-child policy and patrilineal preference for boys means that the population is skewed towards men. The question then becomes where will the men find women to marry them in due course and how does that affect birth rates? Regards, Susan Reply | Quote

linda lau - children - a necessity or an i Posted 15:42 on 2 May 2008 hi susan and all, thought-provoking article, as usual. i don't believe that the issue of having children and how many should be influenced by the 'replacement' ratio but of a couple's ability to afford having and raising them in a manner which is sufficiently comfortable especially in view of the rising cost of food, utilities, school fees, well...basically everything you can think of! my boys are 8 and 10. writing cheques, arranging direct debits and standing orders for their basic school needs, extracurricular activities, tuition, entertainment, clothing (esp replacing shoes!) are matters which stop my husband and i from thinking of another child. the ability to provide adequate quality of life for my children is more important than the perceived joy of a large family. i have friends here in the UK and in the US who have adopted girls from China. the one child policy coupled with the traditional Chinese custom of preferring boys to girls have produced a situation whereby baby girls are discarded in the hope that the next baby will be a boy. the availability of ultrasound scan has also resulted in cases where female fetus are aborted. boys are 'little emperors'. there's never going to be a policy which fits everyone because children and family are very much a part of the emotional fabric with which we define our own identity. Reply | Quote

Susan S. Cheung - children Posted 16:15 on 3 May 2008 Dear Linda, I'm glad my article raised some points and issues. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and experiences with your children. I agree with your point that a couple shouldn't be influenced by the "replacement rate" when deciding to have children, but they have to be on the same page about children and how children will enrich and fit into their lives. As a parent, no matter which way you look at it, they are your total responsibility until they come of age and then beyond that with this present economic climate! Most people have a choice about how many children to have these days and this decision is personal and unique to their situation and circumstances. I respect people who chose not to have children or can't have children. I also respect those who want to have more than two children. As I said the decision is personal and unique for each person - as you said part of their emotional make-up. I too have friends in the U.S. who have adopted girls from China, and the girls are thriving, adpating and growing knowing they are loved and wanted. With the preference skewed towards boys in China, there are many girls in orphanages and institutions. In my mind, children need people to love them no matter their sex, race, ethnicity, abilities, etc. I'm glad people are willing to adopt no matter where they come from in the world. I can't imagine growing up and thinking I wasn't wanted because I was a girl. Many organizations, locally and across the country, are springing up in the U.S. where parents who have adopted from China get together with their children to learn about and celebrate the Chinese culture so their children have a sense of their cultural roots. Often these parents make contact with the local Chinese community for information, resources and friendships. Many parents make such big efforts to keep their children connected to their cultural roots. Best wishes, Susan Reply | Quote

cityhakka - family anxiety Posted 20:30 on 7 May 2008 I dread the thought of starting a family in the future, I don't want my kids to go through the s... of alienation and identity insecurities, that so many BBC have experienced. My current partner is not chinese so there may be potential identity problems to deal with if we planned to wed. Do I bring my kids as chinese or british? What if they be bullied and teased at school for looking racially different. Some of my eldest cousins have decided to start a family in the HK but because they spent so much time in UK they still feel like outsiders and can't mixed with the local chinese during parents meeting etc. They are in their eyes still gwail. I think the poet Larkin is not far wrong, parents F... you up and pass on their problems to their kids. Reply | Quote

Susan S. Cheung - family anxiety Posted 14:07 on 8 May 2008 Dear cityhakka, Thank you for voicing your concerns and for sharing your thoughts. Many BBCs I'm sure will identify with your concerns. Your anxieties are understandable, expecially with the question of bringing up children. I wrote about my identity anxieties and how it affects my children for my first article that started the features column. http://www.dimsum.co.uk/features/bbc-or-abc---its-all-about-identity.html I can say from experience that it doesn't matter whether you marry a non-Chinese or Chinese, you have to be on the same page about having children, how you raise them and what values you want them to grow up with. That can only come after resolving who you are and what you are proud of and likewise your partner. Then you will feel stronger about raising your children. If you are happy and secure, and working through your anxieties/conflicts (I believe they are always there, but you learn to deal with them better, and you deal with community and parents better), your children will sense this and be fine. I am always proud of being British Chinese. I learnt to celebrate being different and not let that beat me or put me in a box so others can judge me and find me wanting. I don't apologise for the circumstances in my life - I am proud of them; they are my badges of honour. Deciding to have children is in no way easy. That's why you have to be clear you want them in the first place. Don't overanticipate as that, from experience, cause boundless stress. I believe in communication, communication, communication - with your partner, children and parents to the best of your ability. And a trust that all will be okay. Best wishes, Susan Reply | Quote

cityhakka - family anxiety Posted 19:59 on 9 May 2008 Hi Susan Thanks for your thoughtful reply, I agree openness and honesty is the key in most successful relationships. Not wanting to give too much away, my previous relationship disasters were due to stubbornness on both sides. The problem for me is that the chinese in general (I would include my parents and my upbringing) are so hard-wired not to be open about expressing a range of subtle and complex emotions, good and bad. Its something that one has to unlearn and its not easy if your background is one of particular culture that predominates in hiding what one really feels. In a way things are still like that i have workmates from Japan and Korea they rarely say how they feel emotionally about things and have cold exterior, unless after few cocktails and beers, the emotional truth is leaked out haha!! Also if ones upbringing is riddled with racial undermining, its also about learning to be strong, not strong in the physical sense but accepting and not being afraid of being who you are, when one is bought up with too many negative messages that damage one's self esteem, you can see its a not entirely an personal but also to do with the wider social cultural environment. Maybe its because you are stronger and more of a fighter than me, that you are able to see things in a more positive light. For me the lesson learnt is the realisation that as people we can never be perfect, not only do strive to be, but want to present ourselves as such. Thanks Reply | Quote

Susan S. Cheung - family anxiety Posted 2:36 on 11 May 2008 Dear cityhakka, I agree many Chinese, certainly of my parents' generation, do not openly express subtle and complex emotions, whether by upbringing or culture. It definitely frustrated me when I was younger not to have any positive verbal validation or reinforcement. I think with age and experience I have learnt to give myself the validation I so craved when I younger and accepted my parents for who they are and as a product of their upbringing. They show me love in different ways, such as cooking a nice meal for me when I see them or when they spoil the grandchildren. Often, I overanticipated how their reactions would be and that led to much stress that when it got to the actual situation it was somewhat deflated. I am no more stronger or more of a fighter than you, but maybe I have a little more age and experience (I'm guessing). You sound like you have made some important realizations in your life. I agree with your point about perfection - and realizing that will help with deflecting comparisons with others. Accepting yourself as you are is the key. Only you can assign importance to what others say or think about you. Please feel free to email me at susan@dimsum.co.uk anytime. Be well, Susan Reply | Quote

cityhakka Posted 19:21 on 14 May 2008 I was going to add a few more personal experiences open for discussion, but I postpone it for a later time, I just read the sad news about the earthquake and seen the press pictures, its momentarily shaken my mood. Nature is so so cruel. Take care everyone. Reply | Quote

Susan S. Cheung Posted 19:40 on 14 May 2008 Dear cityhakka, I agree. I have just blogged about my sorrow for my column for the local newspaper I write for where I live: http://spotlightnews.com/blogs/coffeemates/view_blog.php?blog_id=1210735202 Times like this makes you really reassess; take note and take action. To all those affected, I mourn with you and all those who care, continue to care and do something, even if it's only a small thing to help our fellow human beings. Best, Susan Reply | Quote

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